The Catalan fight for independence is not how conflicts are fought throughout history, let alone how they are won. Some movements for national independence have succeeded in history, others have not. Presently, it seems that the Catalan bid is destined to fail. Maybe in the future Catalans will change their strategy and achieve their goal, but at the moment of writing the Catalan independence movement can be described as a storm in a teacup.

We therefore looked at what worked in the past and is missing right now, or what clearly is not working. Continue reading →

The current US society is internally extremely divided, it will be hard to unite the nation behind the flag in a new large-scale military conflict in the Korean Peninsula. The militarily advanced adversary and a problematic US domestic social and political situation limit the president’s possibilities to lead the nation into another full-scale war.

The tension between the US and North Korea has increased dramatically over the last couple of months, but , as we see it, the war with North Korea is highly unlikely. The Chinese have announced that they will not accept a Libya-style forced overthrow of the North Korean government. A military conflict in the Korean Peninsula will draw China and possibly Russia into it. Hostilities in the South China Sea will come at a significant cost to all parties involved. America’s adversary on the Korean Peninsula cannot be compared to Afghanistan, Libya or Iraq.

We compared the military strength of the United States and China: Continue reading →

Engineering an electoral success with demographic changes does not necessarily pay off. Ask the Republican Party in California.The legacy of Ronald Reagan’s presidencies in the 80s is rather divisive: Republicans consider him the hero that defeated the Soviet Empire, leading the US to an era of prosperity and optimism; Democrats on the other hand regard him as an uneducated simpleton, who curb-stomped workers’ rights, ushered in the era of neoliberalism (to which they have by now converted entirely) and if he succeeded in anything it was merely by luck.

There is something, however, that Democrats can thank him for and Republicans should blame him for: turning California blue (i.e. democratic) forever. The IRCA (Immigration Reform and Control Act) of 1986 regularized illegal immigrants who had entered the country before 1982, provided that they could prove a degree of knowledge of the English language, American history and political institutions. The estimated number of illegal immigrants benefiting from this amnesty is approximately 3 million. Continue reading →

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Although Europe still remains one of the wealthiest and best-organized regions of the globe, there are visible political and economic cracks.
The disintegration of the European Union is inevitable; France and Germany, once the leading nations, are themselves in full decay. While the Germans saw themselves holding the high moral ground by letting
in one million Africans and Asians, their Eastern neighbours in particular watched in horror, so much so that their opinion was not sought. In this Gefira we take a closer look at the events as they are unfolding now. Europe, driven by a suicidal ideology which, to top it all, is implemented by a weak leadership, is heading for a geopolitical, demographic and economic crisis. Tension is building up not only along the continent’s borders but also in European nations, leading up to secession movements inside the Union (Brexit) and inside individual EU member countries (Scotland and Catalonia). In order to defuse the euro crisis, the new French president wants to further EU integration while more and more Europeans are losing faith in Brussels’ bureaucracy and its failed leadership. Read more subscribe:

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For the last weeks the world’s geopolitical situation has been deteriorating because of the tensions around North Korea and renewed talks about re-imposing sanctions against Iran. The sanctions imposed against Kim Jong Un’s regime do not affect Europe or the United States, but are unacceptable for China, which is North Korea’s almost exclusive supplier of goods. We did not need to wait long for the response: China introduced oil futures contracts, payable in the yuan, which could be exchanged for gold on stock exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong. By using these contracts the United States dollar as well as the economic sanctions against Russia and Iran can be bypassed. Read more subscribe:

Gianandrea Galiani interviewed by Daniel Moscardi

Gianandrea Gaiani is the director of the highly respected online magazine analisidifesa.it and an expert on immigration. He is a regular contributor to a number of Italian newspapers and appears frequently on numerous TV channels as an on immigration and security topics. He’s also the author (together with Giancarlo Blangiardo and Giuseppe Valditara) of the recent book (in Italian) Immigrazione, tutto quello che dovremmo sapere (Immigration. All you need to know about”).

Gefira asked Gianandrea Gaiani in an exclusive interview about his views on the latest developments in the arrivals from Libya and Tunisia and the current approach of the Italian government. Outspoken and anything but politically correct, Gaiani hits the spot about the recent change of policy of the Italian government on the NGO’s code of conduct as well as Italy’s achievements and (so called) “partners” in Libya.

GE: What caused last summer’s change of course by the Italian government and its approach toward the NGOs and the arrivals from Libya in general?

GG: The answer is quite simple. The disaster for the PD (Partito Democratico), leader of the current government, at the June administrative elections, sounded an alarm, showing clearly that when it comes to immigration, many center-left voters steer clearly to the right. A swift change of course was badly needed, with the obvious intent of reassuring disenchanted and alarmed Italians that the government was in charge of the situation.

GE: The numbers show that the arrivals have diminished significantly but that’s just that. We are still very far from the pre-2011 numbers.

GG: That’s because the government, on the other side, has to keep being complacent to the industry of immigration. It’s a network that profits – and thrives – on new arrivals, and this network galaxy is NOT happy if the arrivals complete stop. And their votes are also badly needed by the current government.

GE: A network made of? Continue reading →

War is merely the continuation of policy by other means, according Clausewitz. As the last blow to the relations between Turkey and Europe, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has said EU states will cut pre-accession funds to Turkey.The US and Europe’s leadership is uncompromising in its dealings with Ankara. Germany quit Incirlik Air Base this summer and the Dutch authorities deployed a heavily armed unit to the streets with permission to ”shoot in case of need” during an unofficial visit of the Turkish Minister Kaya this spring. The minister wanted to hold a political rally for the Turkish diaspora. Officially, Turkey is a NATO member, but de facto the alliance does not exist anymore. However, nobody in Brussels will admit this because without Turkey the coalition is like a bucket without a bottom. If Clausewitz is right, war within the alliance seems inevitable. Continue reading →