Our analysts do not believe that all the players want to debase their currency. Monetary policy is a part of geopolitics which is why currency exchange rates matter for international relations and the international position of a country. Since Brussels thinks Turkey has become indispensable to maintain a relative calm in Europe, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can demand whatever he wants from the European elites. And since the falling Turkish lira has become a burden for the Turks, why not ask for what is most important in the European Union: the euro. Eurozone membership without EU membership seems to be unimaginable, but for the successor of the Ottomans nothing is impossible.

Having the euro – a strong, reserve currency – can be advantageous to a country for which the EU is the biggest trade partner. Introducing the euro would be proof of internal success and could increase Turkey’s status in the region. And finally, once you have the euro, what could stand in the way of full EU membership? Subscribe To Gefira or download your copy.

Monetary policy does not only influence geopolitics but also the daily life of Europeans. “Geopolitical monetary policy”, the coordinated policy of the Fed, BoJ, and the ECB, also affects the life of ordinary pensioners and pension savers. Monetary policy such as low interest rates can be devastating to pension funds and schemes. While we have known for decades that the European Union has to deal with an aging population, zero or negative interest is something completely new. The consequences for Europeans will be drastic: pensions will be cut and the retirement age will be increased to 72 or even higher. In this Gefira we take a closer look at why the next generation of retirees will be the first after World War II not to draw their pension at 65, a generation that will be confronted with an underfunded and unsustainable retirement system. Subscribe to Gefira or download your copy.

At least that’s what Yegor Firsov says, a former deputy to the Ukrainian Parliament, and head of the Donetsk Udar Party. The forty-odd-year-old lawyer made the headlines when he announced his resignation from his participation in the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. He did not want to be privy to the process of hushing up corruption, he said¹. So long as Minister Igor Kononenko and Attorney General Viktor Shokin were at the helm of power, said Yegor Firsov, that long he could not participate in the doings of the presidential bloc. Continue reading →

This month there are three main events that will determine what happens in the near future. On the basis of our extensive August 2015 analysis we wrote at that time: “The world should prepare for Donald Trump as the next president of the USA”. Among European analysts we were the only ones who saw this coming. It is stunning and worrisome that European political analysts and American experts from renowned European institutions were convinced Trump had no chance to become a GOP nominee. Academia and the elites do not seem to have a hold on US political reality, which is precisely why Gefira is an indispensable tool for future planners and strategists. In the March Gefira we analyze the US election process; Trump’s rise shows a sharp division in the electorate and, what is even more important, it displays a split between those who have an influence on the voters.
In February, the ECB Council made public it want to scrap the 500 euro note. This seemingly minor announcement is a clear signal that the European Monetary authorities are desperate. If the 500 euro note were to be eliminated it would do away with 33% of the physical monetary base as it would be impossible to convert them into lower denomination notes. Our team has found conclusive proof that the only reason to ban these notes is because the ECB wants to experiment with interest rates far below zero. The third significant event we will analyze in detail in the next Gefira is the situation in Turkey and the push by the NATO lobby to incorporate it into the EU, cost it what it may. There is a powerful trend to accelerate Turkish EU membership, but Turkey’s accession would destabilize the European Union to its core.
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