Germany is Now the Sole Dominant Economic Power in Europe

The European Union does Germany a lot of good. To say that the country would develop better or worse without the common currency would be risky. However, the fact is that Germany is doing much better than other EU-members and the Eurozone has never been so dominated by one country. Germany has been growing faster at the regional as well as at the national level and has been gaining its relevance at others’ expense. Accusations of German supremacy may well be grounded, but then the question is who is to blame? Those who are able to improve or those who are lagging behind? Continue reading →

Putin’s Revenge: PKK shot down Turkish Helicopter with Russian Manpad

This week the PKK shot down a Turkish Super Cobra Attack Helicopter with a Russian-made IGLA MANPAD in south-east Turkey. UPDATE 2016-05-19 Turkey confirms downing helicopter by PKK

The MANPAD in the possession of the PKK will seriously challenge Turkish air power and potentially intensify fighting in the region. The Russian-made IGLA MANPAD decimated the Ukrainian air force during the 2014-2015 war in the Donbass. According to internet sources, the insurgents in east Ukraine use this IGLA MANPAD to destroy many Ukrainian helicopters and planes. On 14 June 2014, an Ilyushin of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down with an IGLA MANPAD, all 49 people on board died. Continue reading →

Eurostat Data Shows That ECB Policy Has Failed Miserably

Since the ECB started its QE program in March last year, it has bought 0.6 trillion euros’ worth of government bonds. European Quantitative Easing was introduced by Mario Draghi to boost the euro zone economy.

The latest Eurostat data show that the move has failed miserably, with a scant 1.5% year Eurozone growth to date, which is a huge disappointment if one takes into consideration the QE program with a size of 6% of the total Eurozone GDP. Continue reading →

Trump’s Nomination NOT a Surprise for GEFIRA Readers

After the resignation of Ted Cruz and John Kasich in the race for the Republican Party presidential nomination, Donald J. Trump as the only remaining GOP candidate is on a collision course with Hillary Clinton.

The GEFIRA team is the only European analyst group that was NOT surprised by that fact, since we claimed already in August that “The world should prepare for Mr. Trump as the next president of the USA”. Continue reading →

Europe is surrounded by adversaries

Currently, less than half of the EU’s gas demand is met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Norway (36%), Russia (41%) and Algeria (10%). In recent years, LNG, or liquefied natural gas, has accounted for around 10% of the imports, with most of them coming from Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria. Continue reading →

The Franco-German Relationship is Clinically Dead

The 1992 Treaty of Maastricht came two years after the unification of Germany and laid the groundwork for the 2002 introduction of the euro. The French elite was afraid for the resurgence of a new German powerhouse. To eliminate the dominant Deutschmark, they wanted to extend the use of the German currency to the whole European Common market and have it renamed to the euro. In 1992, Le Figaro wrote that the “Maastricht is the Treaty of Versailles without war”. A French observer noticed, “Maastricht is only a calculated move against the predominance of the Bundesbank and against an independent German currency.” Continue reading →