Ten times a year the Gefira Research Team publishes the Gefira Financial Bulletin, which is indispensable to investors and traders. We are the only ones who provide valuable information and in-depth analysis with a particular focus on the demographic impact on the world’s economy.

Investors need to have greater awareness that before long the developed world will have crossed the demographic Rubicon, reaching a point of no return, where economic growth will no longer be possible. Whatever we may choose to apply, whether Trump’s tax plan, Keynesian stimuli or modern money printing, it will not revive the global economy. Why?

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Once France was one of “the great powers”, dominating Europe and parts of the world in terms of culture and economy. The country’s demise started after the Second World War, though it still played a key role in the creation of the European Union and the euro, which was to prevent Germany from subjugating the rest of the continent. However, this strategy has failed and Berlin has become Europe’s capital, with France’s importance ever dwindling. France’s population is slowly being substituted for by people from Africa. Renaud Camus calls it the “grand replacement”. Paris, once a European, then a global is slowly turning into an African metropolis. If French elites, whose influence in Europe is fading, want to remain a world power, they can only opt for Africa. Qaddafi, the king of the kings, became a threat to France’s interests on the continent. It were not the Americans that pushed for Qaddafi’s replacement but the French elites.

Although the days of colonialism officially came to an end in the 1960s, Paris has not given up its position of a great power on the Black Continent.

France controls most of the countries in West and sub-Saharan Africa politically, economically and through a strong military presence.

Gendarme without backbone

France’s current zone of influence in Africa is the result of the policies of President Charles de Gaulle, who was unable to come to terms with his defeats in Indochina (1954) and Algeria (1962) and therefore sought to achieve the dominance of France in his former colonies. After de Gaulle, however, other presidents did not refrain from using military force and violence in Africa to defend their interests, on the pretext of protecting human rights and democracy. The French often achieved the opposite, because they made the same mistakes in their military actions as Americans made elsewhere in the world: they supported people who later became their enemies or violated human rights. Continue reading →

The EU needs an administrator for Italy who will not destroy the euro. The deal is pretty obvious; the devil you know is better than the devil you do not.

On November 22, the judges of the European Court of Human Rights meet to evaluate the appeal against the ban imposed on Berlusconi to hold a public office, resulting from the application of a 2012 law (legge Severino) and a subsequent conviction for tax fraud in the 90s based on it. The sentence might come after months, but the consequences of the decision will determine Italian politics for the next few years and EU ones as well.

The last 5 years of Italian politics. Let us consider one question after another:

In the second half of 2011, Berlusconi was driven out of office as the spread between German and Italian bonds was rising to dangerous levels. He was replaced by a strongly pro-EU technocratic government, headed by Monti, (a university professor and former EU commissioner), that implemented harsh austerity measures, making Italy plunge into recession.

The Monti government was initially supported by Berlusconi’s center right and the center-left, a government of “national unity” out of necessity. Berlusconi, however, soon became increasingly critical of the technocrat.

Before the February 2013 election, a first sign of treason emerged. Berlusconi’s party belongs to the “European People’s Party” the center-right of EU politics. But the EPP declared that for the 2013 election, their candidate would be Monti himself, running with a centrist civic list, refusing to endorse Berlusconi. Continue reading →

The Old Continent is suffering from a deadly illness, an illness of helplessness. Millions of immigrants have come to Europe, mainly from the Middle East and Africa. Other millions are standing at Europe’s gates. In many Western countries small Muslim minorities will soon become large politically influential minorities. For many years the elites lacking in common sense have propagated a model of multicultural society on our continent. As it is, in return for altruism and goodwill, Europeans have been receiving violence and death in terrorist attacks. A clash of civilizations is being fought in London, Hamburg, Barcelona, Paris and Amsterdam. Europe has lost its spirit and the warrior ethos, which it was formerly known for.

We can only look back at the days when in 1683 the coalition of Christian troops under the command of Polish King John III Sobieski defeated the invading Turkish army at the Battle of Vienna and defended Europe against Islam. Those soldiers were imbued with an invincible spirit of their heritage. Polish historian Feliks Koneczny, creator of an original theory of civilization, wrote about the role of the human spirit in history. European and American readers are familiar with Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations?”, while the Polish scholar worked out his theory much earlier. Some experts say that Huntington drew on Koneczny’s thought. Continue reading →

Football (soccer for the Americans) is nothing short of a religion in Italy. In a country where churches are now often empty, support for a football club is often called “faith”. Intellectuals would sometimes complain that Italians care more about the sport than the political situation of the country, going back to the old Roman tradition that the “plebs” care only about “panem et circenses”, bread and games.

For the first time since 1958 however, Italy won’t be taking part in the “games”, giving Italians something to think about. Eliminated by the Swedish national team, Italy won’t join the final phase of the World Cup competition to be held in the summer of 2018 in Russia.

A national tragedy and a significant economic damage: according to an analysis,while the qualification to the final phase grants $1.5 million to the team, in case of reaching at least the quarter finals, those would become 18, escalating in case of semifinal or final. For the Italian federation, income from commercial deals is approximately $43 million, including an $18 million deal with sports clothes brand Puma; the whole sum rises to $70 million a year with television deals. Now that Italy is “out” however, a devaluation of the brand is expected, though hard to quantify. Continue reading →

“We want God”, “Great Independent Poland,” “Death to the Enemies of the Fatherland!” “Christ is Poland’s King”, “Deus vult” (Latin for God wills, a battle cry of the Crusaders)these are the principal banners carried in the annual Independence March that is held in Warsaw and also in other cities on 11 November, Independence Day. Also in the one two days ago. At the head of the marching column you could see a few white flags sporting the red Jerusalem cross. Tens of thousands of people, waving tens of thousands of white-and-red national flags young and old, of all walks of life, with whole families take to the streets. The people participating in the march think of themselves as patriots (the word which in Poland still has positive overtones) paying tribute to the fallen heroes. To the western media these are Nazis, racists, anti-semites and islamophobes. An abomination for the European Union.

What has positive overtones in Poland (patriotism, faith, family), has negative ones in Western Europe and the other way round. Migrants, LGTBQ and gender mainstreaming is not welcome in the area between the Oder and Bug Rivers. The EU values cannot be farther from Poland’s values and vice versa. The Independence March denigrated by the Western media was favourably covered by the Polish government and other national media, except for those which are far to the left and very much pro-European. The former shored up the positive aspects of the event, the latter only looked for incidents to blow them out of any proportion and join the chorus of their western counterparts in condemning “fascists” and “white supremacists”. Continue reading →