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All war presupposes human weakness and seeks to exploit it.

By Karl wilhelm Wach (http://www.nodulo.org/ec/2007/n066p13.htm) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Sending refugees to Greece and prosecuting Europeans is merely the continuation of policy by other means. Erdogan shows himself to be a good pupil of Clausewitz. Ankara’s objectives are the integration with the EU and gaining financial support from the EU on Turkish terms, as we explained in April Gefira #3. To this end Turkey heavily relies on its nationals in Europe to heighten tension with Berlin and the European Commission, carrying it almost too far. European citizens see that Erdogan is getting the upper-hand over the weak European politicians: Merkel’s popularity is now plummeting across the continent, so that the chancellor may even be forced to step down as a result of Erdogan’s political maneuvering. Continue reading →

Turkey is Preparing for the Euro without European Union Membership

Image1Our analysts do not believe that all the players want to debase their currency. Monetary policy is a part of geopolitics which is why currency exchange rates matter for international relations and the international position of a country. Since Brussels thinks Turkey has become indispensable to maintain a relative calm in Europe, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can demand whatever he wants from the European elites. And since the falling Turkish lira has become a burden for the Turks, why not ask for what is most important in the European Union: the euro. Eurozone membership without EU membership seems to be unimaginable, but for the successor of the Ottomans nothing is impossible.

Having the euro – a strong, reserve currency – can be advantageous to a country for which the EU is the biggest trade partner. Introducing the euro would be proof of internal success and could increase Turkey’s status in the region. And finally, once you have the euro, what could stand in the way of full EU membership? Subscribe To Gefira or download your copy.

The Dutch Holding World’s Largest Pension Funds are Raising the Pension Age to 72

pensionMonetary policy does not only influence geopolitics but also the daily life of Europeans. “Geopolitical monetary policy”, the coordinated policy of the Fed, BoJ, and the ECB, also affects the life of ordinary pensioners and pension savers. Monetary policy such as low interest rates can be devastating to pension funds and schemes. While we have known for decades that the European Union has to deal with an aging population, zero or negative interest is something completely new. The consequences for Europeans will be drastic: pensions will be cut and the retirement age will be increased to 72 or even higher. In this Gefira we take a closer look at why the next generation of retirees will be the first after World War II not to draw their pension at 65, a generation that will be confronted with an underfunded and unsustainable retirement system. Subscribe to Gefira or download your copy.

Europe’s Inevitable Intervention in Libya Will Add 1.3 Million Barrels to the World Oil Glut

LibyaEUEurope is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut . Continue reading →

‘They Have Come to Power to Earn Money’

Poroshenko1At least that’s what Yegor Firsov says, a former deputy to the Ukrainian Parliament, and head of the Donetsk Udar Party. The forty-odd-year-old lawyer made the headlines when he announced his resignation from his participation in the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. He did not want to be privy to the process of hushing up corruption, he said1. So long as Minister Igor Kononenko and Attorney General Viktor Shokin were at the helm of power, said Yegor Firsov, that long he could not participate in the doings of the presidential bloc. Continue reading →

Trump Will Get Rid of the Neoconservatives and Their Costly Failures

sacrificeThere is a good chance Donald Trump will win the presidency as we already said in August 2015. Trump has the support of the most powerful part of the American elite. A Media Research Center study finds that, over a two week period, coverage of Donald Trump’s campaign took up nearly 78 percent of all CNN’s prime time GOP campaign coverage. According to mediaQuant, the big networks gave Trump 1.8 billion dollars’ worth free publicity, far more than the other candidates, with Clinton receiving a mere 746 million dollars. Continue reading →