Greece’s forthcoming financial collapse will not be without consequences for the Euro

This week 11.3 million European citizens will discover that their Euro’s have disappeared overnight as a part of Europe’s Banking system collapse. Not only private banks in Greece are unable to cope with the situation but also a part of the European System of Central Banks has stopped functioning.

The fallout will not be restricted to direct loses but also include indirect loses due to political upheaval.

The Greek debt of around 370 Billion Euro’s is primarily held by institutions as the IMF (10%), Euro-Area Governments (62%) and (8%) by the ECB.
16% is probably held by private investors like Japonic Partners and Paulson & Co.
The direct loses of banks outside of Greece are limited, however the indirect damage will be tremendous. Investors and bankers will discover that the public and political support for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has been evaporate.
The indirect fallout will be immense and could trigger a worldwide financial and political crisis.

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A Greek Euro is not the Same as a German Euro.

Varoufakis, the Greek minister of finance, is one of the few who does understand monetary policies. He has no problem with expressing his opinion. His visions will be determining for the future of the EMU, the European Monetary Union. The current Greek government seems not willing to play the game of extend and pretend. The confrontation between Greece and Germany is not only about those two countries, it is about the EMU at large.
Whatever the outcome of the negotiation end up to be, the euro crisis will not be solved within the coming weeks. In the oncoming days it will only be decided if and how Greece is able to break the German hegemony on European Monetary policy. If Greece is being forced to leave the Euro zone, it will cause a huge damage on Greece and the EMU. If Greece is staying in the Monetary Union, Greeces current political leaders will keep challenging Germanys financial leadership.

Varoufakis at US conference in 2012 about; Greece, the Euro, and the failing European policy.

The Euro as an unified currency has already ceased to exist, in modern societies the Banking system is the backbone of its monetary system. Almost all transactions are done through banks and not with cash. Most corporate and private savings are stored at banks deposits. One has to realize that the euro is not about notes and coins, but about bank accounts and bank transactions. It is not the paper euro that matters, but the Euro as a deposit at a bank account. It is not hard to see that one euro on a Greek Bank account has a lower expected value than one euro on a German Bank account. Without the willingness to create a real single currency, the EMU is at risk.

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The Russia – US conflict is now a full blown Hybrid war.

The West and Russia are engaged in a full blown hybride war. They are fighting each other in the juridical, financial and economical domain, they are engaged in cyberwarfare and proxy-wars. The future shall not be the same, expecting that the current conflict will reach new lows in the coming period. Germany is the sole Western power to prevent a further escalation of the conflict.

Many analysts see the Ukraine conflict as the beginning of the renewed conflict between Russia and the US. It is already dubbed as “the new cold war” and being portrait as the consequence of Putin’s aspirations to rebuild the Soviet Empire. In this narrative the Russian-US conflict started at an more or less random period in the recent history.

To get a better understanding of the current conflict it is preferable to identify the Libyan crisis as the start of the Russian-US restrained relation, it is the beginning of a new kind of war: “hybrid war”.

During the Libyan conflict the NATO let coalition was granted to enforce a no fly zone in Libya, it soon escalated in a full blown illegal war against the Kaddafi regime. Not only did the NATO forces bomb government and military targets in Libya, according to the British media, Britain’s Special Forces were in disguise on the ground. It was clear that France, the US, the Netherlands and Great Britain where engaged in a full blown conservative war inside Lybia. Even though it was obvious that those armies were engaged in battles with the Libyan army, their respective governments flat out denied that they were at war at all. The same pattern was visible over and over again during the uprise of the Syrian Jihadist movements against Assad. Syrian Jihadist were, according to Reuters, supported by the CIA from Turkey. A strategy that has been later adopted by Russia in Ukraine.

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Did German and Greece politicians passed the point of no return?

The outcome of the Greece saga is far from clear. Greece leaving the Euro could be the next Lehman moment. For that reason we did knew Greece would not leave the Euro back in 2011 Euro Crisis. For now we are less sure. The current Greece leaders see no future for Greece in the current Euro structure. In their opinion they are left with two option either crash Greece right now or suffocate it more slowly.

A member country leaving the Euro Zone will spell a lot of uncertainty and chaos for financial markets and the European economy at large. All contracts with Greece Government, companies and private persons are denominated in Euro’s. As Greece introduces its own currency it will probably start to issue some kind of IOU’s to pay its employees and contractors. This is a paper claims that promise some future payment. We have seen this strategy in California in 2009.

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Turkey heading for more turmoil

Current Turkish election results spells troubles ahead for Turkey’s stability. We expect that in Tukisch political climate of polarization current elections result will lead to political and economical instability. As Turkey host many extremist, the country is the supply route for Jihadist in Syria and Iraq, Turkey face a serious risk violence will be spilled over into Turkey. Many European annalist and politicians do underestimate the polarization of Turkish society and its economical instability.

USDLira

Lira versus the dollar since 2012

Under Erdoğan Turkey was moving to a more restrictive regime that curbs some liberties. Under the AKP there has been a ban on Twitter and YouTube. Journalist came under heavy pressure.

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Russia World Cup Will Be Taken Away

US intervention in FIFA election spells the end of the Moscow World Cub. Without any doubt FIFA is as corrupt as can be, but US law enforcement actions are primarily meant to take away Russian world cup 2018.

It is well known the US has different means at its disposal to fight a Hybrid war.

Promoting regime change by a plethora of NGO’s.
International sanctions
Intimidating Military presence in areas that are not a threat to the US internal security
Juridical sanctions
Economical warfare.

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Redrawing the map of the middle East.

The existence of the Islamic State is now a fact. We expect the “new country” will eventually be recognized as we have seen before in history in similarly cases. Kurdistan Regional Government will be independent within a couple of years. Basra area will become a protectorate of Iran. Annalist and financial and political planners better accept the reality to get the most out of it.

ISIS originate from the US-Turkey-Saudi Arabia supported Jihadist movement that battled Assad in Syria since 2011. Up to the spring in 2014 the group did got moderate positive media coverage.

In 2013 Obama was on the verge of giving Jihadist groups in Syria , including ISIS, full air support. It was Russia that successfully prevented Obama’s biggest mistake ever by preventing a full US aerial assault on Assad’ army.

Since 2013 it seemed Assad was winning the battle against the insurgents. Assad’s victory over the Jihadist consolidated Iran’s influence in the region. With Maliki in power in Baghdad this resulted in an Iranian alliance that stretched from Basra, Baghdad, Damascus up to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, considered a more dangerous enemy for Israel than Hamas in Gaza . For the West, Israel and Saudi Arabia this situation was clearly unacceptable.

Especially for Israel and Saudi Arabia the defeat of the Iranian influence by ISIS victory in 2014 was an welcome relief. ISIS suddenly success, resulted in the disposal of Maliki in Baghdad and a reclamation of Shia held area by Suni militia’s. Many Suni’s did welcome ISIS more than they ever welcomed the US “liberators”. ISIS is not despised by everyone whatever the media narrative does make out of it.

In 2014 ISIS did overrun a big chunk of Iraqi’s army, defeated Peshmerga units in Syria and Iraq, destroyed Shia militias and forced Assad’s army on the defensive. The public has to believe that the group was able to accomplish this without any support from outside.

The events from 2011 up to now has resulted in a permanent change of the Map of Syria and Iraq; the Islamic State is a fact. There is no change the state will dissolve in the near future. The idea of an collective Arabic alliance against ISIS does only exist in Pentagon Propaganda, copied by many media outlets.

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