Our societies will undergo a radical change

Let us wind the tape fast forward. Germany 2060. We are entering the country from east or west. We are travelling across it, visiting ancient towns and cities, doing the sights in medieval castles and cathedrals. The people that we face are black or brown; with kinky hair, squinted eyes, pouted lips and sometimes even blond hair and fair skin. Some speak good German, some speak broken German, some speak Somali, some Pashto, some Turkish. We hear their names: Muhammad,Karl-Heinz, Hassan, Konrad, Omar, Gojko, Mammoon. A German of Afghan descent is our guide around a medieval castle explaining to us the ways of life of the former inhabitants of the country; an imam walks us around a cathedral turned mosque, explaining that some time back it fell into disuse, and so it was taken over; we are entertained by a black teacher who is proud of teaching German to students with diverse cultural heritage, ‘You know,’ she says, German is almost a kind of present-day Latin in terms of it being almost obsolescent but still one of the official languages of the country.’ So we tour the country in search of Germany or rather traces thereof. We can still find German cuisine in isolated pockets in the countryside. Continue reading →

No support from the West for Erdoğan during coup

In the chaotic moments and endless news feed about the Turkish coup, it became clear that Washington and the West did not support Erdogan.
After Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi and Viktor Yanukovych it was now time to get rid of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to the Daily Sabah the coup was linked to the Gülenist Terror Organization (FETÖ), which has its leadership based in Washington.
The day after the failed coup, Western-based media tried to contain the damage and hurried to proclaim: “NATO Allies Rally Behind Erdogan as Turkish Coup Splits Military.” They did not!
On Friday when the situation was very chaotic the White House website stated “The President spoke tonight by phone with Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss the events in Turkey. The President and Secretary agreed that all parties in Turkey should support the democratically-elected Government of Turkey, show restraint, and avoid any violence or bloodshed. The Secretary underscored that the State Department will continue to focus on the safety and security of U.S. citizens in Turkey. The President asked the Secretary to continue to keep him updated as the situation unfolds.”

The announcement was purposefully vague nor was it made by the president himself; in the text of the White House, there was no reference or any direct support for Erdogan or outright condemnation of the coup. The “democratically-elected Government” as stated in the announcement does not include Erdogan as President. Of course, if the White House did support the democracy, the text should read: “democratically-elected Government and the President.”
The coup leaders said they’d done so in the name of protecting democracy, and this is in line with the statement of the White House.

Continue reading →

Turkey: No condemnation from Washington!

While the military is forcefully trying to take over power in Turkey, there is no condemnation from the the White House nor Berlin or Brussels. It is hardly likely that the Turkish generals did not consult their plans with Berlin and Washington. Without a green light from the West, a coup is doomed to fail. The military must have had prior assurance from the West that they will not impose sanctions on the country, should the power change be carried out.
However, we do not believe the coup will succeed because the Turkish people and a large part of the security apparatus will not accept this brutal power grab. This coup is another failed attempt by Washington and Europe to create stability in the Middle East. Erdogan has an extensive support among the country’s population; he is already replacing a part of the military leadership and security apparatus with AKP followers. If Erdogan failed to regain power, the country would descend into a full-blown civil war. In Turkey, there is a significant support for Jihadist groups, which have battle experience. The country is a hub for all kind of irregular armed groups in Syria. A part of the security forces will support Erdogan and is willing to fight.
We think it is more likely that Erdogan will restore control in the coming days. In this situation, he will extend his power and understand Washington is not on his side. It will result in a significant overhaul of the armed forces and Turkey will break with NATO.

Drones: The Future’s Normality

The year was 1960. A stealth high flying aircraft was detected in the skies over an empire’s territory. The alarm was duly sounded, the air defence troops were placed on full alert and activated their anti-aircraft system. Soon a missile was fired and hit the target.

The year was 2014. A remotely piloted stealth craft was detected over disputed territory. After the alarm had been sounded and the defence troops put on alert, the flying object was electronically intercepted, its controls were taken over, and the craft was made to touch down. Continue reading →

Brexit Has Little Relevance

From an economic point of view, Brexit is not a big issue as we have already warned many times. We informed our readers beforehand that fear-mongering by Soros, Zerohedge and their likes would result in an unjustified market sell-off. We do not believe that global economy is doing fine, and we see enormous trouble ahead. With the absence of a sustainable global growth, hedge fund managers try to create turbulence in the market to reap a profit.

In the first seconds of June 24 trading day, just as the Brexit results were announced, the losses (and profits) due to the engineered panic were gigantic. If we only take a closer look at the numbers for the ESX, DAX and FTI futures, more than 200 million euros evaporated within one day. Because this is a zero-sum game, somebody must have made unbelievable profits. Continue reading →

Gefira Gold Report

Gold price in euros hit the three years high at 1220 euro/oz last week. Gold price in dollars, euros, and British pounds increased while that expressed in the yen did not change that much. The June IMF shows that central banks are still adding gold to their reserves, Especially the Russian and Chinese Central Banks, which are adding gold on a monthly basis. And it just happens so that these two countries are the most powerful adversaries of the United States. Continue reading →

Tit For Tat: a Turkish Party in Germany

The scenario seems to be like this: President Erdoğan lets loose immigrants wave after wave; the European Union negotiates with him in a bid to have him stop the immigrants flood and contain them on Turkish soil; President Erdoğan demands that Turks be allowed to enter the EU without a visa and that Turkey be admitted to the Union as soon as possible; Brussels-slash-Berlin apparently agrees though the idea of having Turkey as a member state without it conforming its laws to European standards is not palatable; so the German Bundestag comes up with the idea of slapping Ankara in the face by passing a resolution that recognizes and thus brings to the world’s attention the annihilation of Armenians that took place a hundred years back as an act of genocide. In response to or in retaliation for which Ankara recalls its ambassador from Berlin, blocks a visit of German politicians to 250 German soldiers stationed at İncirlik Air Base, and threatens with the worsening of the bilateral relationship. And to top it all, a Turkish party is to be formed in Germany. Continue reading →