A falling industrial demand, falling commodity prices, falling trade, falling sales. This is what we see now in China, Europe and even in the USA. What comes next? Falling employment, falling customers’ demand, falling economy. Global trade gives us clear signals that we cannot ignore.

A crisis is coming and these are the signs:

1. China: October imports fell 18.8 percent in comparison to the previous year¹. It is the beginning of the domino effect, with its coal and iron background.
2. Taiwan: October orders from China fell 10.6 percent in comparison to the previous year, from Japan 24 percent down. Taiwan’s export orders are seen as an indicator of a demand for high-tech gadgets and for Asia’s exports².
3. Japan: first decline in exports in October since August 2014 (2.1 percent in comparison to the previous year). Reasons: China’s slowdown, poor Asia’s demand, the yen not weak enough. Double-digit declines in auto parts and electronic components³.
4. Germany: a monthly drop in exports in August, due to declines in industrial production and the number of factory orders⁴.
5. UK: 40% of respondent-companies are below average in export orders. Reasons: China’s downturn and a strong sterling⁵.
6. Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell below 500 for the first time. Baltic’s BDI Index (gauging the cost of shipping) reflects a slower coal and iron ore demand in China. 19-commodity Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index reached 13-year lows⁶.
7. USA: quiet three busiest U.S. seaports during ‘peak shipping season’. Imports in Los Angeles, Long Beach and New York fell in both September and October for the first time in a decade⁷. Continue reading →

The political situation in Europe is escalating rapidly. Saturday and Sunday Brussels was placed on lockdown. In Crimea there was a total electricity blackout after the pylons providing electricity for the region had been blown up in Ukraine. Border controls all over Europe are being reinstated as the Schengen agreements are suspended.
As Europe is in turmoil and European politicians are paralyzed by terror, it is a matter of time before Moscow secures its access to Crimea.

Power’s out in Crimea.

Brzezinski, US top strategist, explained in 1997 that Ukraine is Russia’s bridge to Europe. Taking this bridge out will isolate Russia from Europe. Brzezinski also noticed that Muslims make up 20 to 30% of the Russian population. Arming the Mujaheddin and supporting the aspiration of Muslims could destabilize whole nations. The grand-master of the US hegemony never anticipated the current chaos in Europe. Continue reading →

It was four days after the Paris attacks that a friendly soccer match between Germany and Holland was to be played. Chancellor Angela Merkel and some members of her government had announced their presence. It was to be a show of strength and a message to the masterminds of the (future) attacks: we have not been browbeaten, we continue to live the way we have up to now. An hour and a half before the game started, it was canceled and the venue with a large neighboring area evacuated. It is alleged the police was tipped off on a planned terrorist attack; it was alleged an unattended object had been found on the stadium premises.

Germany’s Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere held a press conference¹. He had a hard time explaining the situation. Everything was done for the sake of security, how otherwise. Yet there remain questions that weren’t asked and weren’t answered. Is it true that the German state cannot seal off a sports venue? How come is the whole state paralyzed by a misleading tip? Why did the government so self-assuredly call on the citizens to turn up at the match in defiance of the terrorists without regard for such an outcome? Is not Germany kept at bay by a handful of underground fighters who do not even need to resort to the use of arms? Continue reading →

The refugees have arrived by the score. And there will be more. According to the figures of the UNHCR, 60 million people worldwide have fled their home country. Of those, some millions will manage to migrate into the European Union. As we have written in an earlier article, the policy of building the “fortress Europe” has utterly failed. We need a total reshaping of our refugee policy with a view to fight the flight causes in the countries of origin. But that will only improve the situation in – at the best – the midterm future.

The prevailing issue now is: what will be our attitude in relation to the people that are already on European soil? Considering the situation in their home countries, it would be totally illusory to believe that their stay will only be temporary and that they will eventually return home. We have to provide them with a prospect of permanent residence within the European Union. But that permanent residence can take quite different forms according to the degree of integration we (and the refugees) consider to be desirable. The spectrum of refugee integration is actually enormous: from their mere presence, living segregated, barely if at all speaking the language, working in jobs that only require the minimum of qualification, a new “reserve army of unemployed,” to their becoming fully-fledged members of our societies, with their children speaking perfectly the language, acquiring the best education according to their talent and ambition, and turning into ‘normal’ Europeans with the mere difference to other Europeans that their parents have arrived more recently.

Continue reading →