Guest author: Koert van Rijn
It’s a vicious virus that is going around, with a mortality rate of about five times that caused by the flu. Most nations looked away initially, but were faced with reality when it hit them in the stomach. Almost every country waited till the hospitals had filled up and then totally panicked. The fear of the virus was wrongly increased by the WHO’s speculation of a 3.4% mortality rate, and Neil Ferguson, who conjectured about half a million deaths in England alone. A big blunder, but the fear was created and remained stuck even when the data were reassuring.
They had to do something, but what? There was a paper-thin theory that social distancing may stop this kind of influenza from spreading. If it works with the flu, why not with Corona? An ever increasing number of countries implemented this idea and they imposed a strict lockdown. Lo and behold, the infection rate has diminished. Three times hooray to all the leaders for their bold approach.
Unfortunately, there is increasing evidence that it’s not a 1.5-m distance that was the cause of the positive result. A comparison of the countries with a strict and not so strict lockdown show that the difference in deaths or infection cases is but slight.This is logical if you look at the information that is now available about the mode of transmission of the virus. On the one hand, there seems to be many superspread events.There are many well-described events in which an infected person has transmitted the virus on in a church or hall full of people, if the conditions were conducive. That is to say, low-humidity, low ventilation, with the affected person speaking or singing.
Furthermore, research has shown that in German households with one virus carrier only 18-44% of the members have become infected.No doubt, household members keep a shorter distance than 1.5 m. Why have they not all been infected? Research has also shown that there is barely if any form of outdoor corona infection, no matter how big the get-together has been.This means that the virus being extremely airborne is also easily blown away. Security can thus be improved by the avoidance of large gatherings held in poorly ventilated areas that are shut off from the outside world. The 1.5-m distance is no cure.
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