Without the organised mass-migration all Western and Eastern populations are in full demographic decline, and before this century comes to an end the most productive and consumptive societies will shrink by 60%. The US and European populations only keep growing because unprecedented and ever-rising numbers of migrants arrive annually. This is no conspiracy but a mathematical fact. In Japan, a country that keeps its borders closed, oil consumption has dropped by a staggering 25% since 2000.As a consequence of the inevitable depopulation of the industrialised world oil consumption will fall by at least more than 40 mln barrels a day shortly.

To keep oil consumption at high levels, it is in the interest of the Saudis to repopulate Europe and the US with men and women from Central Asia and Africa. Professor Bryan Caplan argued in The Economist that labour is the world’s most valuable commodity and its value depends on location. Western societies are more structured and organised than their Mexican or Nigerian counterparts, and unskilled workers will be more productive in a factory in Germany or a farm in the USA than in AfricaThe Wall Street speculator George Soros explained that Europe should accept 500.000 migrants annually and finance this with public debt.He realizes that a 60% drop in the European population will decrease consumption by the same amount. Depopulation will cripple world consumption and will slash world oil demand by at least one third. Continue reading →

A few days ago European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (an EU apparatchik with a number of honorary rewards equalling that received by Leonid Brezhnev, the erstwhile secretary general of the Supreme Soviet) delivered a speech in the Trier Basilica commemorating the 200^th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth and unveiled a huge monument to the top ideologue of the leftist movement, a monument donated – of all the world’s countries – by China and sculpted by Chinese artist Wu Weishan. The significance of the event should not be lost on anybody. Let us remark with care:

One: A leftist speaker, an EU commissioner (which is another form of the word commissar, and commissar was the name for the ministers who made up the collective dictatorship in the early years of Soviet Russia and during the times of the Commune of Paris of 1871) used the Trier Basilica, one of the most important shrines of Christianity to praise to the heavens an atheist who went down in history as someone who described religion as the opium (opiate) for the people and of the people. Continue reading →

Since 2016 when the oil price was below 40 dollars per barrel, the Gefira analysts wrote over and over again, that it would be back over the hundred dollars per barrel by 2020. World oil production is about 98 million barrels per day, and in the second half of this year, oil demand will break a historical threshold of 100 MB/d. The 3 top producers – the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia – are responsible for 33% of the world oil production. The US produces about 10 million barrels of oil, and it also imports 8 million barrels oil per day. 18% of all consumed oil in the world finds its way to US storages or refineries.

Both the US and Saudi Arabia not to mention Russia desperately need a much higher price of oil. The US will issue an unusual amount of treasuries in the coming years as the budget deficit reaches new highs, and the Federal Reserve began selling its US debt holdings. High oil prices are a tax on the US and European consumers, collected by foreign oil producers and the surplus profits are reinvested in sovereign wealth funds which buy US securities and debt obligations. Four of the top five most significant sovereign wealth funds received their revenue from oil; Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, and SAMA Foreign Holdings (Saudi Arabia). Continue reading →

The United Nations has launched a migration report under the title: Making Migration Work for All. During a session UN Secretary General António Guterres delivered a speech, followed by an accolade from Louise Arbour, Special Representative of the Secretary General for International Migration. The other participants chipped in with their submissive praises. The whole UN agenda has also been released under the title of Making Migration Work for All.

In his speech the Secretary General said among others (emphasis added):

Let me emphasize: migration is a positive global phenomenon. It powers economic growth, reduces inequalities, connects diverse societies and helps us ride the demographic waves of population growth and decline. (…) Authorities that erect major obstacles to migration — or place severe restrictions on migrants’ work opportunities — inflict needless economic self-harm, as they impose barriers to having their labour needs met in an orderly and legal fashion. Worse still, they unintentionally encourage illegal migration. Aspiring migrants, denied legal pathways to travel, inevitably fall back on irregular methods. (…) The best way to end the stigma of illegality is (…) for Governments to put in place more legal pathways for migration.

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The 2020 crisis is the accumulation of the demographic problem which will entail a financial and economic disaster. The world’s most productive populations are ageing and will subsequently disappear.

Politicians, journalists and the financial press are ignoring the flashing warning signs. Economic mavericks like Max Keiser, financial critics like Steve Keen and mainstream economists like Paul Krugman are debating financial repression, monetary and fiscal intervention or allowing for more free markets and more real capitalism. None of them seems to touch on what is plain to see for us all: the youth in the most productive countries is disappearing at a breathtaking pace. States like the US, France and the UK are attempting to make up for it with the acceptance of unprecedented large numbers of unskilled and even undocumented migrants. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 euro crisis are portents of what has yet to come.

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Europe’s native population is not just aging, it is disappearing. The political and financial establishments rely on false official projections. Despite the UN Population Division prognoses that fertility rates will soon rebound to replacement rates, such a phenomenon is nowhere to be seen. In all European countries native populations have extremely low fertility and they are in full decline, and there are no signs that this will change anytime soon. Whatever official statisticians try to make you believe, an increase in fertility and the growth of populations in countries like France, the UK and Sweden is 100% migration related. These are non-refutable facts: plain mathematics. For now about 50% of the migrants in Western Europe come from Central Europe, however that will not be the case for long. Gefira is one of the few research groups that have the capacity to do our own computer-based projections and our findings are disturbing.

Population in Poland has been and certainly will be decreasing because of the low fertility rate (1,36 in 2016) and long-lasting emigration. The Polish state-run Central Statistical Office (GUS) predicted such situation but its forecasts include not only emigration but also immigration mainly from Ukraine and even with people moving to Poland the situation does not look good. The Gefira calculations, excluding migration, forecast 30 million native Poles in 2050 and 13,5 million in 2100. Continue reading →

The next crisis is just a couple of years away, and Germany will be its largest victim. Economies grow, driven by capital and labour. The ECB monetary policy is currently providing the German economy with enough funds, but the country is experiencing a catastrophic lack of youth, and its ageing labour force is not being replaced as a result of which workforce is already in short supply.

Since the German population is declining at a staggering pace, before the end of the century there will only be 22 million indigenous Germans left. Currently the working population has already begun to shrink. This drop is still moderate compared to what will come after 2020. The disappearing of the nation that has just begun will have catastrophic consequences. The German government recorded a large budget surplus last year, a sign that the authorities are not willing or able to invest in their own country. Germany lacks health care professionals, road construction workers and teachers, but allocating more tax money to this sector makes no sense because there are simply no people available. For that reason road construction sites have come to a standstill and road maintenance is postponed. In order to find consumers and labourers, the German industry is investing in new factories abroad.

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